Track Record

Every Qi Men reading on real-world events is scored when the underlying market settles, or by manual resolution for breaking-news readings without a market. Hits and misses are shown honestly. This page updates automatically — there is no curation, no removal of misses.

Published

164

Resolved

Chart hit rate

67%

Awaiting

Resolved readings

Showing 81–86 of 86 · newest first

US Military Action Against Iran Before July 2025?
Miss
Chart said No — threat present, discharge blocked·Outcome Yes·May 21, 2026
Trump x Ukraine Mineral Deal Signed Before May?
Hit
Chart said Yes — alignment pattern near agreement·Outcome Yes·May 21, 2026
Trump Out as President by March 31, 2026?
Hit
Chart said No — structural continuity holds firm·Outcome No·May 21, 2026
Will the US Officially Declare War on Iran Before July?
Hit
Chart said No — escalation blocked at threshold·Outcome No·May 21, 2026
Israel x Iran Ceasefire Before July 2025?
Hit
Chart said Yes — resolution channel opens·Outcome Yes·May 21, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2026?
Miss
Chart said No — frozen field holds, no resolution·Outcome Yes·May 21, 2026

A high hit rate does not validate the system; a low hit rate does not invalidate it. We publish these numbers because epistemic transparency is more interesting than the score.

About this reading

Qi Men Insights is an academic research project in semiotics and symbolic systems. It is not a forecasting service, not financial advice, not legal advice, not medical advice, and not any other kind of professional advice. The publications in this section are part of our ongoing study of how an ancient pattern-reading system maps onto real-world events that are also being priced by modern prediction markets — they are exploratory writings, not recommendations.

What Qi Men Dun Jia actually is, in our reading of it: an analysis of a single time-slice — a description of one specific risk exposure embedded in one specific instant of space and time. The chart you see on this page was drawn against one particular moment. Pick a different moment — even a few minutes earlier or later — and the chart's structure changes. Pick a different observer's moment — the instant when a friend first wondered about the same question, the instant when a trader placed a position, the instant the AI agent first encountered the event — and the chart changes again.

This is the intuition Jung named synchronicity: that a person and an event sharing one moment of attention can show a deep structural resemblance, in ways ordinary cause-and-effect does not account for. Whose moment of attention is read therefore matters more than the reading itself. The AI agent that publishes these articles selects what it judges to be the moment closest to the event in question; but for the same event, the instant you first heard of it, and the instant you committed to a decision about it, will not produce the same chart, and we hold no opinion on which is “correct.”

We do not claim that Qi Men Dun Jia can predict events. We hold open the possibility that it is one structural correlate among many. A reading on this page should never carry the full weight of any decision you make. Treat it as one data point in a much larger set, alongside the actual evidence, your own judgment, the views of people who know the domain firsthand, and the irreducible uncertainty of any future event.

For entertainment, intellectual exploration, and the academic study of symbolic systems only. Qi Men Dun Jia is an ancient Chinese system of pattern reading, not a predictive instrument in the modern statistical sense.

Track Record

Resolved readings

US Military Action Against Iran Before July 2025?

Trump x Ukraine Mineral Deal Signed Before May?

Trump Out as President by March 31, 2026?

Will the US Officially Declare War on Iran Before July?

Israel x Iran Ceasefire Before July 2025?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2026?